2019 AFL Playoff guide
- Jimmie Johnson III
- Jun 1, 2020
- 5 min read
It’s officially playoff season! These teams have battled all season for a chance to compete for the coveted Arena Bowl trophy and the time is now. This year’s playoffs should produce some memorable games as this is the first time since 2011 that all the playoff teams have a record above .500. This guide will be your one shop stop to this weekend’s playoff matchups with everything from time and date, to game analysis.
Where: Times Union Center in Albany, NY
When: 7/27 (Saturday) at 7 pm ET
Game preview:
This matchup will go a long way in answering an ancient football question: does offense or defense win championships? This game features Albany’s number one ranked offense against Baltimore’s top ranked defense. These two teams met once in the regular season with Baltimore going to the Times Union Center and handing Albany its first loss of the season, 42-41.
Baltimore will have confidence from its previous victory over the Empire. Meanwhile, Albany will come into this game focused to avenge the midseason loss and also to right the wrongs of last year’s playoffs. Last season the Empire were the number one seed, but lost in the semifinal playoff matchup to the 2-10 Washington Valor. Look for them to try and make a statement in this opening game.
Albany Empire Key Players: QB Tommy Grady, WR Malachi Jones, WR Quentin Sims, DB Tevin Homer, DL Joe Sykes
Baltimore Brigade Key Players: QB Shane Boyd, WR Joe Hills, DB Josh Victorian, DB Joe Powell, DL Justin Lawrence.
Key Matchup: Albany Offensive Line versus Baltimore Defensive line.
While many will probably highlight The Brigade’s secondary versus Albany’s receiving core, I’m going a different route. The secondary battle can only take place if Tommy Grady has enough time to throw to his elite receivers and that starts in the trenches. Albany Offensive linemen Moqut Ruffins and company have only given up a league lowest two sacks this season. But the Brigade defensive linemen have collected a league high 19 sacks, with eight of them coming in the past three games. Protecting the quarterback or disrupting the pocket will go a long way in determining this game.
Keys to success:
Albany Empire: Red zone defense
Albany touts the best red zone defense in the league, limiting opponents to a score rate of only 65 percent. Baltimore has touchdown machine Joe Hills and fellow goal line receiver Milton Williams, However, the Brigade offense has only scored on 67 percent of their red zone trips this year. These red zone battles will be pivotal for the Baltimore offense to keep up with Albany’s offense or it can be a way for the Empire defense to create separation in the game.
Baltimore Brigade: Control the tempo
The Brigade will want to control the time of possession battle to give them an advantage against Albany’s offensive attack. In the Brigade’s week seven victory over the Empire, they held the ball for 17 minutes more than the Empire. Even more telling is that the Brigade are 5-2 when they hold possession longer than their opponents and 2-3 when they lose the time of possession battle. Look for Baltimore to take its time during its offensive possessions.
Where: Capitol One Arena in Washington DC
When: 7/28 (Sunday) at 3:30 pm ET
Game preview:
This is an exciting matchup of two high powered offenses that are built very different. For Washington it’s the Arvell Nelson show. He has accounted for about 99 percent of all the Valor’s scoring either with his arm or with his legs. While he has a talented group of explosive receivers with Josh Reese and Dezmon Epps, for Washington they live or die by Nelson. On defense LB James Gordon and DB Marrio Norman will look to stop a veteran Philadelphia offense. The defense has been average all season so they will need to step up and get some stops if they want to get a win on Sunday.
As opposed to Washington’s one man show, Philadelphia touts a high-powered offense by committee. Veteran quarterback Dan Raudabaugh gets the ball to his playmakers Darius Prince, Lonnie Outlaw and BJ Bunn who all have over 500 receiving yards this season Additionally, fullback Adrian Ferns is a big factor in the red zone and he is second in the league in rushing touchdowns with 12. On defense DB James Romain leads an aggressive secondary who have a league best 16 interceptions this season. But, similar to the Valor’s defense, this entire unit has been middle of the pack all season and will have to make some timely plays to help its team win.
Washington Key Players: QB Arvell Nelson, WR Dezmon Epps, WR Josh Reese, LB Alvin Ray Jackson
Philadelphia Key Players: QB Dan Raudabaugh, FB Adrian Ferns, WR Darius Prince, DB James Romain,
Key Matchup: Arvell Nelson versus the Soul secondary
It will be a very interesting to see how this matchup plays out since each side holds some type of advantage. Arvell Nelson is a gunslinger who likes to take risks. Many times these risks work out, which is why he ranks second in the league in yards (2980) and touchdowns (54). This matchup works in his favor because the extremely pass happy Valor team is going up against the worst pass defense in the league.
But on the other hand, Nelson’s style of play also leads to lots of interception, and Nelson leads the league in them with 15. Meanwhile, the Soul defense is tied for the most interceptions in the league with 16. Soul DB James Romain leads the league in interceptions with eight and his fellow teammate Dwayne Hollis ranks fourth with five interceptions.
Whichever side can win this matchup could be the deciding factor in the game.
Keys to success:
Washington Valor: Arvell Nelson and more Arvell Nelson.
The ceiling is as high as Nelson’s productivity. This season he accounted for 73 of 74 of the Valor’s touchdowns either through the air or on the ground. If he goes through his reads and is smart with the football, the Valor will be very hard to stop. But reckless play and turnovers could spell doom for the Valor. They are 1-3 when Nelson throws two interceptions or more.
Philadelphia Soul: Get a sack
For the Soul it’s all about their defensive line with Thomas Dover, Sean Daniels and Jameer Outsey. This group will be responsible for disrupting Nelson’s pass rhythm while also containing his run ability. Getting to the quarterback will be critical if the Soul want to win this weekend. They are 7-2 when recording at least one sack and 0-3 when having no sacks.
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